The Green Bay Packers will likely be without franchise quarterback Jordan Love Sunday when they face the Indianapolis Colts in their home opener.
Love suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in Week 1, has not practiced this week and seems unlikely to play.
If Love is out, the Packers will try finding a way to win with No. 2 quarterback Malik Willis, who was traded to Green Bay just 2 ½ weeks ago.
Indianapolis is a 2.5-point favorite, a number that was 3.5 at the start of the week, but has gradually trickled down.
Even without Love, there’s a path for Green Bay to win this game. Here are five keys.
1. Run, Josh, run
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Houston piled up 213 rushing yards against the Colts last week, the highest Week 1 total in football. The Texans also averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
Joe Mixon led the way with 159 rushing yards on 30 carries (5.3).
"They did a great job rushing the ball," Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. "As a D-line, we've got to do a better job with getting off blocks, obviously, not having too many busts when we're blitzing or whatever it is. We kind of beat ourselves."
If Love is out, the Packers would almost certainly lean heavily on running back Josh Jacobs, who had 84 yards on 16 carries in Week 1. Jacobs had just four yards on six carries in the first half, then had 80 yards on 10 carries in the second half (8.0).
No. 2 running back Emanuel Wilson (4-46) would likely see an increased workload, as well.
Indianapolis will undoubtedly load the box, so the Packers’ offensive line will have to be at its best.
“I think as the game kind of progressed, you just saw us do better and better in the run game,” Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said of Green Bay’s performance against Philadelphia. “That's kind of how the run game goes, you just keep leaning on 'em, you keep leaning on 'em, and you start popping runs. So I think that's a testament to those guys up front. As the game went along you're kind of able to find those seams and wear them out and Josh hit some big ones. So it was good.”
2. Comfort is key
Malik Willis was traded to Green Bay on Aug. 26, meaning he’ll have been a Packer for just 20 days on Sunday.
The challenge for Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur is to design a game plan that Willis is comfortable with and takes advantage of his strengths.
Willis is a terrific athlete and a dual threat quarterback. The problem is his accuracy, mechanics and decision making have been spotty, at best.
So look for the Packers to give Willis a lot of run-pass options, short and intermediate throws and ask him to be nothing more than a caretaker for the offense.
“I think there’s a lot of trust both ways in terms of him trusting that we are going to do our best to put him in the best possible position to make sure that we are dialing up the things we think they could potentially do to us from a defensive standpoint, and attack those perceived weaknesses or whatever they may be in a certain coverage or certain defensive scheme,” LaFleur said. “Then, it comes back to going through the process, go through whatever he does not feel comfortable with and we’ll probably ‘X’ out. And things he feels really comfortable with we’ll make sure we highlight and get dialed up.”
3. Defense must deliver
During the Matt LaFleur-era, the Packers’ average finish in scoring defense is 13th. Green Bay finished ninth in 2019, then 13th, 14, 17th and 10th.
Green Bay’s average finish in total defense under LaFleur is 14th with finishes of 18th in 2019, then ninth, ninth, 17th and 17th.
The Packers were hoping to take a jump from most of those mediocre finishes under new coordinator Jeff Hafley. Instead, Green Bay allowed 410 total yards and 34 points in Week 1.
Indianapolis was 11th in scoring offense a year ago and 15th in total offense — so the Colts are capable of big afternoons. The Packers’ defense needs to make monumental gains to help carry an offense that might need all the assistance it can get.
“We need to find out how much we can handle going into a game,” Hafley said. “We need to find out what we’re really good at, and then we need to keep doing those things over and over. I think you’ll see us evolve as we get going and do more and more, right? And then I do think you’ll see a big jump.”
4. LaFleur must be better
Matt LaFleur has had to coach just one game without his preferred starting quarterback since he arrived in Green Bay in 2019.
That came in Week 9, 2021 when Aaron Rodgers missed the game due to COVID, and Love — then a second-year player — made his first career start.
Love’s final numbers weren’t awful as he completed 19-of-34 for 190 yards. He did throw an interception, finished with a subpar passer rating of 69.5 and the Packers fell, 13-7.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzed Love like crazy, often coming with six and seven rushers. LaFleur and Green Bay’s offensive line didn't seem ready for the constant wave of pressure.
Although Love was only sacked once, much of that was because of his ability to escape pressure.
LaFleur simply didn't give his young quarterback enough help in this area.
“Where I was disappointed was just situationally, when they were coming after us on third downs, I was disappointed with myself in terms of not having a better protection plan for him,” LaFleur said. “If you don’t make a defense pay when they’re bringing pressure, they’re going to continue to do that. And that’s exactly what happened.”
If Willis plays Sunday, LaFleur will have to be dramatically better in giving him the necessary help to succeed.
5. Red zone, dead zone
The Packers were in the red zone — inside the 20-yard line — four times last week. They scored on just one of those trips.
Green Bay’s defense forced three turnovers, and after each one, the Packers missed on terrific chances to build momentum and settled for field goals.
“I think every single drive, every single bit of points that we left out there is important,” wideout Christian Watson said after the Eagles loss. “The defense gave us opportunities early to run away with it a little bit. We didn’t execute as well as we should have but that’ll be an emphasis in the film room and we’ll find a way to overcome.”
The Packers have struggled in red zone efficiency in recent years, ranking just 17th in the NFL in 2023 (53.42%), 23rd in 2022 (51.85%) and 18th in 2021 (57.53%). In LaFleur’s first two seasons, Green Bay was second in 2019 (67.9%) and first in 2020 (76.8%).
The Packers might not get many chances inside the 20 against the Colts and need to fully capitalize. So red zone field goals simply won’t cut it.
